A new World Bank report has raised concern about global economic growth, predicting that growth could ease to a weakerthan-expected 2.6 per cent in 2019 before inching up to 2.7 per cent in 2020. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to stabilise next year as some countries move past periods of financial strain, but economic momentum remains weak.
Emerging and developing economy growth is constrained by sluggish investment, and risks are tilted to the downside. The Bank lists the risks to include rising trade barriers, renewed financial stress, and sharper-than-expected slowdowns in several major economies, the World Bank says in its June 2019 Global Economic Prospects: Heightened Tensions, Subdued Investment.
Structural problems that misallocate or discourage investment also weigh on the outlook. “Stronger economic growth is essential to reducing poverty and improving living standards. Current economic momentum remains weak, while heightened debt levels and subdued investment growth in developing economies are holding countries back from achieving their potential,” said World Bank Group President, David Malpass.
“It’s urgent that countries make significant structural reforms that improve the business climate and attract investment. They also need to make debt management and transparency a high priority so that new debt adds to growth and investment,” Malpass stated.
Growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slow in 2019, especially in the Euro Area, due to weaker exports and investment. The Bank said that US growth could ease to 2.5 per cent this year and decelerate to 1.7 per cent in 2020, while Euro Area growth is projected to hover around 1.4 per cent in 202021, with softness in trade and domestic demand weighing on activity despite continued support from monetary policy.
Meanwhile, growth among emerging market and developing economies is projected to fall to a four-year low of 4 per cent in 2019 before recovering to 4.6 per cent in 2020. “While almost every economy faces headwinds, the poorest countries face the most daunting challenges because of fragility, geographic isolation, and entrenched poverty,” noted World Bank Group Vice President for Equitable Growth, Finance and Institutions, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu.
“Unless they can get onto a faster growth trajectory, the goal of lowering extreme poverty under 3 per cent by 2030 will remain unreachable.”